A lot of missings in home team...

Third game of the Finals, serie is tied 1:1 (3:2, 0:4).

Bern won last game even easier then expected, it is obvious that they play much better at home. But, if they want to win this Finals they have to win one away game aswell. In first away game they were really close, but failed to equalise and when you think about whole game, they played one of the worst games in Play-offs. They also now have mental advantage as they won last game.

Minus for Bern will be missing of Landry and Camichel who are injured, and suspended Christian Berglund. But Davos will have even more problems with abscence of Irgl (their best scorer in Play offs so far), Daigle and important defender Chawanow who is already missing for some time.

My impression overall is that Bern looks better, through the whole Play-off and in this two Final games, they don't have good tradition against Davos, but Bern already managed to win away this season (6:2), they just look like a better team and i belive that today they won't lose in regulation.

St Patricks are only team that has all wins after three rounds in Ireland. In last round they had an important win away against Derry, and this will be their second home game this season. Moral is really high as team is doing great, and they are waiting for Bray in really good atmosphere.

Bray is 4th on the table and that looks really good now, but they aren't team that should be in upper part of the table at the end and they lack quality for better results. They have two wins in three games, but both came against weak team of Bohemians and Waterford. In only "tougher" match they lost against Derry away 0:1, it was an opening match of the season.

Saints have a really good tradition against Bray when we look only their home games, in last two season three wins in three games with goal difference 10:1. They also won last three encounters against Bray, who usually plays bad away. I like this odds for -1 handicap very much and i'll take it with medium stakes...

Second game of the Finals, Herning leads 1:0 after home (7:2) win four days ago.

Overall Herning dominated whole league in regular season, and what's the most interesting thing, they played much better in away games in PO. They had a little bit easier opponents in Nordsjelland and Esbjerg and Aab will be a real test for them. Until now Herning won all four away games in PO, with overall goal difference of 17:6. In first game they dominated as you can see from the score, and Aab players looked tired as they had to play seven games against SonderjyskE in Semi-Finals.

Aab plays in the Finals for fourth season in a row, but always got eliminated. I don't belive that they will be much luckier this season either. At home they had problems already against Frederikshavn (two draws), against SonderjyskE it was always an intense games and Aab eventually managed to win at the end, but i rate Herning a little bit better team, and Aab has young goalie as Greer is still injured, he didn't acted really good in first game against Herning and i don't belive that he'll improve a lot. Anyway i think that value is on away side. Another plus for away win is their mutual meetings in this regular season:
2007-02-02 Herning 3-0 AaB Ishockey
2006-12-30 AaB Ishockey 0-2 Herning
2006-11-21 Herning 5-1 AaB Ishockey
2006-11-06 AaB Ishockey 0-5 Herning
2006-10-10 Herning 4-2 AaB Ishockey
2006-09-22 AaB Ishockey 1-1,1-2p Herning

As you can see Herning won in every game, some easy, some tough, but they won. I hope they can do that tommorow too.

Clash of the two unbeaten teams in Irish Division 1. Dundalk is a leading team with three wins in three games, Athlone is just behind them with seven points after away draw at Limerick.

Dundalk will play their second home game, in first they won 3:2 against Finn Harps after hard fight, another two victories came away at Kilkenny and against Shels.

Athlone plays much better at home, they won against Kilkenny and Wexford Yths with the same 3:0 result. But away they "only" draw with Limerick, but Limerick is also a good team.

So, we have a derby, both teams after first three rounds are looking good and are candidates for promotion. Dundalk looks a bit better, but today they will have problems as Marney, Whelehan and McGauley are suspended. Athlone won't have any injury/suspension doubts.

Dundalk showed really good fire power as they scored seven goals in three games, in every game at least two. Athlone is doing about the same in attack, scored seven, but six at home and playing much better in defense (conceded only against Limerick away). Dundalk still looks better and i belive that they will score today, Athlone should also score once so i advise to take an over 2.5 and cover 1:1 result for moneyback...

Second game of the Finals, Davos leads 1:0 (3:2).

Today pressure will be on Bern who has to catch the Davos after they've lost first game 2:3. In that game Bern defence made a lot of mistakes and Davos used them good.

But, Bern is completly different team when playing at home, until now in Play-off they won every home game, six of them and overall goal difference in that games was 25:6! Last three home wins were with the same result - 4:0.

Davos is playing better at home, away in PO they have W2-D0-L3 15:16. And today they will have a hard task as BernArena will be full with over 16000 spectators and all cheering for a home team.

What goes against this pick is their mutual meetings this season, Davos won five of eight, Bern only two and one ended as a draw. Especially bad is stats when Bern playing at home as they lost three of four. But, as this is match in Finals, and their first at home i belive that they will win it like last season.

Bern will today miss Bordeleau, Landry and Hubacek, Davos will be without Chawanow and Varada. I don't think that any of this missings will be very important for a result of this match.

This is just a HUGE mistake by 5Dimes, i just can't belive that they made it. That handicap should probably be +5 not +0.5, but they didn't changed it, just lower the odds after first bets. I don't think that it will stay like this much longer but catch it while you can.

It's the part of preparation games for IHWC held in Moscow, Sweden won't be in top form, but even Sweden "B" team would win against Hungary i belive. This is just a gift...

"First game of an Austrian OEL Finals. This is the re-play of the last season Finals in which Villach won 4:2. In that six games, there were only two over 6.5 goals, others finished even under 5.5. I expect something similar in this PO as it's Finals and teams won't play just attack. On top of it, all players of both teams are fit and ready to play and there won't be any injury issuses.

In this season this teams met eight times, and five times played under this margin. I rate possibilitie for under 6.5 around 60% and this odds represent value to me. I only hope for cautios first period and expect four or five goals at the end..."

This is quote of my explanation for their game two days ago. I don't see anything changed, that game finished 2:0, that under was never in question and teams played as expected. In this game i don't expect them to change their style of play, Villach is now 0:1 down in serie and won't rush, Salzburg can wait for their chances. Bet365 made a big mistake with this odds, i would take it even @1.75 like at other bookies but this is really too much.

EDIT: I forgot to change the time, it starts in 19:15.