I've closed this blog and mailing list due to lack of time. I'm currently working on some other project and probably won't re-open it again.

Scythe

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Divide your stake between X and AW for a potential high win...

Malmo just bankrupt, all players are to leave club and for a team of their reputation and players budget they sure didn't played good lately. Nails in the coffin just continue to came, and last one was 2:4 loss to last Mariestad, conceding four goals in last period. I doubt that players have any motive except to leave the club...

Additionally, Malmo is 2nd worst home team in league, and only Sundsvall is in worst form. While Huddinge has big motivation (to avoid relegation) and currently plays in much better form. They've also won both their mutual meetings this season (3:2 and 4:2).

Notice: I advise you to make self-made DNB with 5.25 odds on draw at Sportingbet and 5.50 AW win odds on Unibet. I went this high because of extreme value, i don't think this pick has more then 50% of winning chance. All odds over 2.50 are good, but adjust your stake. I repeat, this is value bet, not an easy winner...

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My first high stake pick in days. As i'm in bad form recently maybe it's not wise to make high stake bets, but here i can't resist.

Jokerit had some injury problems in the beginning of the year, goalie Riksman was most missed, but since Vuorio came Jokerit improved a bit. And now Riksman is back and only injury reported is Bishai (4g+7a) who is longer injured. It's time to collect points for better Play-off places and secure Play-offs, without additional Play-off games.

SaiPa is on rocky bottom of the league. And although i rate TPS and Assat worst then them they are among the worst teams of league. Additionally their injury problems are getting worst and worst and today they will miss seven players. Elmeri Kaksonen (1g+4a), Ville Koho (3g+6a), Valtteri Tenkanen (5g+2a), Jussi Tarvainen (6g+8a), Pauli Levokari (2g+4a), Juho Mielonen and Joni Tuominen are all out. On goal there should be again switch, Tarkki instead of Hostikka who conceded ten goals in their trip to Lahti.

SaiPa should have problems both in front and in back and i think that Jokerit should be able to win once again against them (h2h this season 2:1 in Jokerit favor). All odds above 2.00 are worth taking.

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One of many CHL games in which i expect low numbers.

Torpedo is currently hot team of CHL, but with opponents like Barys, Khimik or out of form Avangard and Lokomotiv they could make good streak. Games against Lada and Kazan showed how are they capable of playing low scoring games away. Here, i doubt they will try to attack more, they will let Severstral attack and they will wait their chances.

Severstral was in bad streak, but easily managed to beat out of form MVD. Torpedo won't give up easy goals, same as Severstral, as this match is of extreme importance for both of them.

H2h is also good for playing on under, and with most of bookies offering 1.65 odds you can't be wrong taking it. My predicted result is 2:2.

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I really can't understand odds movements on this one.

SKA is in bad streak, but they faced mostly quality teams that are hard to break. St. Petersburg main strength is off course defense. In match against Atlant it was rather obvious. Still, SKA hasn't got that "killer" instinct, to demolish teams of lower quality. Only three times they've scored five goals at home (Kazan, CSKA and Avangard, teams against they were very motivated). Six overs in 23 games at home, five of them coming after they've conceded three or more.

MVD here can't score three or more. They can be lucky if they score two. Last time they've scored three in their surprising 3:2 win, but since then, in reverse fixtures this season both time they've lost without scoring. All mutual games went under 5,5. MVD current streak is bad and although they can keep decent numbers and their defense isn't such weak as of some other middle/bottom placed teams is.

I expect home win and low scoring match. MVD will defend, SKA won't play relaxed in defense as they just don't do it. Also they aren't really efficient, MVD scored only seven goals less then them.

Odds above 1.60 on 5,5 margin are worth to take, same as 1.90+ odds on margin of 5 goals. I expect 3:1 here.